Note: This file has been updated with overnight pitching changes and weather-related postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
San Diego Padres starting pitcher Mike Clevinger is one of the top options on Tuesday’s schedule slate of games.
What you need to know for Tuesday
By Derek Carty
The top pitcher of the entire slate today is Mike Clevinger. He faces a weak, often strikeout-heavy Chicago Cubs lineup, and he’s fully stretched out now. He’s only available in about 25% of ESPN leagues, but being that he’s a superior option to even Justin Verlander, Aaron Nola, Robbie Ray, and any other ace on this slate, he’s worth mentioning. In other words, if he’s available, you have to grab him. Plus, given his ace potential, you’d probably want to continue to roster him after this start anyway.
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The Oakland Athletics and Detroit Tigers play a doubleheader today. While these are normally among the least noteworthy offenses for fantasy purposes, even a below-average hitter with twice the usual volume becomes one of the most valuable assets. Besides, since this is Oakland and Detroit we’re talking about, almost their entire offenses are available in the majority of leagues. Among the top targets would be Ramon Laureano (11%), Spencer Torkelson (64%), Jeimer Candelario (51%), Robbie Grossman (46%) and Sheldon Neuse (17%).
Nearly 40 degrees separates the hottest game from the coldest one on today’s slate. On the hot side at nearly 90 degrees, the St. Louis Cardinals project for the third-most runs of the day according to THE BAT X. Dylan Carlson (63%), Harrison Bader (26%), and Yadier Molina (13%) all make for solid streamers.
Garrett Whitlock has been absolutely lights out this year and has serious long-term appeal if he can hold onto his spot in the Boston Red Sox rotation. Today marks a very difficult spot for him, though, going into Atlanta to face the second-best offense in baseball. It’s also on the hotter side at close to 80 degrees, so you may want to think about sitting him for this one.
If you’re looking for stolen bases, the Philadelphia Phillies and Tampa Bay Rays both face very exploitable batteries today. Roman Quinn (0%) would be the best bet of the day if he cracks the Philadelphia lineup. Brett Phillips (0%) and Manuel Margot (25%) also look like strong options.
It’s not too late to start another free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday.
Starting pitcher rankings for Tuesday
Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Tuesday
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Chad Pinder (OAK, RF — 2%) at Frankie Montas and Adrian Martinez
Jonathan Schoop (DET, 1B — 48%) vs. Montas and Martinez
Elvis Andrus (OAK, SS — 4%) Tarik Skubal and Alex Faedo
Tony Kemp (OAK, 2B — 5%) at Skubal and Faedo
Sheldon Neuse (OAK, 2B — 18%) at Skubal and Faedo
Kevin Smith (OAK, 3B — 2%) at Skubal and Faedo
Christian Bethancourt (OAK, C — 0%) at Skubal and Faedo
Yandy Diaz (TB, 1B — 40%) at Reid Detmers
Ryan McMahon (COL, 3B — 68%) at Alex Wood
Julio Rodriguez (SEA, RF — 66%) vs. Aaron Nola
Kyle Schwarber (PHI, LF — 96%) at Robbie Ray
Eugenio Suarez (SEA, 3B — 54%) vs. Nola
Matt Chapman (TOR, 3B — 90%) at Luis Severino
Tyler Stephenson (CIN, C — 83%) vs. Freddy Peralta
Dansby Swanson (ATL, SS — 74%) vs. Garrett Whitlock
Jeremy Pena (HOU, SS — 52%) at Joe Ryan
Ian Happ (CHC, LF — 72%) at Mike Clevinger
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (TOR, LF — 92%) at Severino
THE BAT X’s Best Stacks for Today
Milwaukee Brewers at Hunter Greene
Los Angeles Dodgers at Bryse Wilson
New York Mets at Patrick Corbin
Prop of the Day
Tony Gonsolin strikeouts: Over/Under 4.5 (-140/+105)
THE BAT sees Gonsolin putting up 4.1 strikeouts for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 38.8% of the time. THE BAT believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $25.39.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER
Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Gonsolin has gone to his off-speed and breaking pitches 11.2% more often this year (67.1%) than he did last season (55.9%).
Gonsolin has put up a 12.7% Swinging Strike% since the start of last season, checking in at the 85th percentile.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER
Gonsolin has been given a below-average leash since the start of last season, throwing 17.2 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.
PNC Park grades out as the #27 park in the game for strikeouts, via THE BAT.
Gonsolin will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.
Gonsolin has been lucky with his strikeouts since the start of last season, putting up a 9.62 K/9 despite THE BAT estimating his true talent level to be 8.74 – a 0.88 K/9 disparity.